It looks like the market is in free fall here, and there has been a lot of “smart money” on this outcome since the market opened. Looking at the table, this looks like a terrible bet, but when you look beyond the results, it makes a lot of sense. Hødd have picked up 19 more points than they deserve, while Strømsgodset have picked up 10 fewer points than they deserve! xG doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story, but according to the xG table, Godset should have had 45 points, while Hødd should have had just 11!

The teams met at Høddvoll a few weeks ago. I watched that game, and it was one of the craziest matches I’ve ever seen. Hødd won 4–3, but in the second half they were barely over the halfway line. Godset won the xG battle 2.67–1.05, the shot count was 24–7, and corners were 9–1. Godset were the away team that time — now they are playing at home, where they have historically been extremely strong and have been poorly rewarded in recent matches.

I’m backing Strømsgodset -1.5 handicap. Those looking for higher odds can go for an even bigger handicap. Remember Stabæk, who are roughly on the same level as Godset, beat Hødd 6–0 a few weeks ago, with Hødd completely outclassed. This could easily turn into a big score if Godset get an early breakthrough.