I'm backing Italy to beat Türkiye with at least two goals in the match, a single at 1.6.

The two sides are heading in opposite directions. Italy won 4-1 in Türkiye only a week ago and followed it with a 1-1 draw away to France. Türkiye have lost all three of their Nations League games, scoring once and conceding eight, and have yet to keep a clean sheet in the competition. Italy have also won four of the last five meetings without losing any, so the home win is where most of my confidence sits.

I'm not expecting a rout, more a controlled, cautious Italian win, and that is why the goals line is only 1.5. It needs just two goals, and with Türkiye shipping goals the way they have in this group, a 2-0 or 2-1 looks well within reach.

The risk is plain. Italy's one home game in this competition ended in a 0-2 defeat to Belgium, and a scrappy 1-0 would sink the bet. But against a side this short of confidence, 1.6 is a fair step up from the bare win price of 1.42.