Dinamo Zagreb are a clear step up in class here. Maksimir is one of the toughest away trips in this stage of European qualifying, and Dinamo have built their continental reputation on getting the job done at home before managing the return leg. Thun arrive with a limited European pedigree and a squad depth that tends to show late in games, especially against opponents who can rotate and still keep intensity high.

Dinamo's approach in these ties is usually front-footed: high possession share, sustained territorial pressure and a lot of entries into the final third. Against a side that will likely sit deep and defend in a mid-to-low block, that volume of chances should eventually tell. The Asian Handicap -1.0 also gives us the safety net of a refund if Dinamo win by exactly one goal, which is the main downside scenario — so we only lose if Thun avoid defeat outright.